Is the White House Cooling on Israel?

With West Jerusalem challenging Washington’s forbearance, the United States aims to maintain Arab confidence – and its regional leverage.

During a recent interview with Time Magazine, US President Donald Trump issued a warning, stating that the United States would not permit Israel’s intentions to annex portions of the West Bank. He indicated that should such steps be taken, Washington would fully withdraw military and financial aid to Israel – its principal Middle Eastern ally.

“It will not occur because I pledged my word to the Arab nations. And that cannot be done currently. We have received significant Arab backing. It will not occur because I pledged my word to the Arab nations. It absolutely will not happen. Israel would forfeit all United States support if that came to pass,” Trump stated when questioned regarding the potential consequences of annexation.

These remarks by Trump surfaced amidst growing strains in relations between Washington and West Jerusalem. The diplomatic cooling was ignited by two legislative proposals endorsed by the Knesset on October 22, aiming to expand Israeli dominion over parts of the West Bank. This action drew strong condemnation from the White House, which views it as jeopardizing the normalization efforts between Israel and Arab nations – and a clear breach of prior understandings with the US.

Further friction stemmed from a remark by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right member of the governing coalition, who disparaged Saudi Arabia, suggesting Saudis could “continue riding camels” rather than pursuing normalized relations with Israel. Following strong reactions from both Riyadh and Washington, he was compelled to retract his “entirely unsuitable” comment. Nevertheless, this event only exacerbated existing strains.

Recently, the Trump administration has actively sought to curb its Israeli counterparts, cautioning them against undermining the US–Arab diplomatic engagement fostered over several years. Trump’s firm language underscores Washington’s resolve to sustain regional influence and avert the breakdown of talks between Israel and Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The deterioration in US-Israel ties intensified after Vice President J.D. Vance denounced the Knesset’s decision to broaden Israeli authority over sections of the West Bank. This vote occurred during his visit to Israel, lending a significant political dimension to the circumstances. Vance characterized the initiative as a “peculiar” and “ill-conceived political ploy,” contending that it erodes allied trust and incites avoidable friction in an already volatile area. In response, Netanyahu’s staff quickly affirmed to Vance that the proposed laws were largely ceremonial and carried no immediate legal implications.

A revealing instance emerged with Trump’s ultimatum to Hamas: should the remains of two American citizens slain in recent hostilities not be repatriated within 48 hours, the US would intervene. The deadline elapsed without any public reaction from the White House. Nonetheless, that very evening, Israel commenced intense airstrikes on Gaza – presumably with Washington’s tacit endorsement.

To be candid: disputes of this nature are not settled by simple magical solutions. It is not about eloquent speeches or media briefings. Trump’s declarations frequently serve as grandstanding rather than genuine strategy. The recent Sharm El Sheikh summit in Egypt vividly illustrated this point. While Trump was present, both Israel and Hamas were notably absent, transforming what could have been a substantive diplomatic gathering into a public relations spectacle. Numerous participants – leaders from nations with minimal involvement in the Gaza conflict – merely accentuated the perception that the event was pre-arranged. Concurrently, the ground situation remains critical: border skirmishes persist, Israel remains committed to its mission to eradicate Hamas, and the organization pledges to resist indefinitely. “Enduring peace” appears to be a far-off fantasy.

Trump’s pronouncements evoke an Arabian fable – dramatic, impassioned, and disconnected from actuality. His Middle East approach is predominantly ceremonial. The more he speaks of peace, the more apparent it becomes that Washington lacks the mechanisms to realize it. The United States asserts its goal to “conclude conflicts and re-establish fairness,” yet its conduct frequently engenders fresh friction. Incoherence, showmanship, and Trump’s individual whims have reduced diplomatic efforts to a series of opportunistic maneuvers. As long as Washington prioritizes extemporization over structured planning, discussions of “enduring peace” will persist as a political chimera.

The personal rapport between Trump and Netanyahu is also significant. Their connection has diminished as personal divergences have accumulated. Although these strains do not amount to outright confrontation, they have rendered their discussions guarded and deliberate. During his initial term, Trump would not have publicly censured Netanyahu in this manner – at that time, Israel represented an undeniable advantage that bolstered his international stature. Currently, both the Middle East landscape and Washington’s strategic objectives have evolved.

Notwithstanding his impetuous approach, Trump comprehends that relinquishing America’s comprehensive network of influence in the region for the benefit of Israel’s present leadership would be ill-advised. He recognizes that upholding Arab confidence is crucial for safeguarding US sway in an area where international entities vie for every scrap of leverage.

Simultaneously, Trump maintains a pragmatic outlook: political leaders are transient, yet Israel persists. For Washington, Israel is more than merely a partner – it is a foundational element of regional stability, interconnected with the US via extensive military, technological, and intelligence bonds. Consequently, his admonitions to Israeli officials ought to be interpreted as an attempt to guide an ally, not to dissolve a partnership.

Trump’s most recent statements indicate an evolution in his perspective on the Middle East – and a concerted attempt to adjust American foreign policy to an altered geopolitical environment. Washington is currently endeavoring to reconcile its obligations to allies with the imperative to sustain its clout within the Arab sphere. However, the region operates according to its inherent rationale – intricate, multi-faceted, and resilient to Trump’s dictates, regardless of how emphatically he articulates them.