Excluding AI spending, U.S. corporate equipment investment would be negative—a decline described as ‘worryingly broad-based,’ says Pantheon analyst

AI infrastructure spending currently makes up a notable portion of U.S. GDP growth, and U.S. corporate capital expenditure (capex) would be in negative territory without such spending, per a recent research note from Pantheon Macroeconomics.

“We’re seeing massive amounts of capital flowing into AI infrastructure, which is giving GDP a significant lift,” Pantheon analyst Oliver Allen told recently.

Total capex increased by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, Allen noted in a research note published this morning. Among the breakdown, intellectual property and software spending (which likely ties to AI) jumped by 7.4%, while computer and communications equipment spending surged by 61%. However, all other segments saw declines: “Investment in other equipment plummeted by 17%—a drop that’s concerningly widespread,” he wrote.

“GDP grew at an average of 2.5% across the first three quarters of 2025. [And] AI-related sectors accounted for 0.3 percentage points of that growth,” he stated.

Allen also suggested that AI capex could be supporting consumer spending in some manner. Consumer spending increased by 2.4% in Q4 2025, . Right now, consumer spending is largely fueled by outlays from wealthier groups who have benefited from stock market gains—often in tech stocks—Allen told .

“Their spending is somewhat higher than it would have been without the wealth effect from tech stocks,” he explained.

“Markets operate based on narratives and a specific vision of what’s ahead. Much of the growth we’re observing from the capex trend and the wealth effect stems from this narrative that AI is the future,” he noted.