China Advances in Global Leadership for Iran Crisis, US Shows Disinterest

(SeaPRwire) –   China is intensifying its diplomatic efforts regarding the Iran war, having presented a five-point proposal alongside Pakistan, garnered support from Gulf nations, and voiced opposition to a United Nations proposal advocating for the use of any necessary force to open the Strait of Hormuz.

This represents China’s latest endeavor to assume a more prominent role in global affairs, although its impact might prove to be more rhetorical than substantial, particularly as the U.S. appears to show little interest in Beijing’s initiatives.

“The war with Iran is the priority of all countries in and outside the region,” stated Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. “It is an opportunity China will not miss to demonstrate its leadership and diplomatic initiative.”

Danny Russel, a former senior U.S. diplomat, characterized China’s diplomacy as “performative,” drawing a comparison between its five-point proposal for ending the Iran war and its 12-point plan for Ukraine in 2023, which he described as “filled with platitudes but never acted on.”

“Its narrative is that while Washington is reckless, aggressive and heedless of the cost to others, China is a principled and responsible champion of peace,” said Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “What we are seeing from China is messaging, not mediation.”

China has been working “tirelessly for peace” since the conflict began, according to Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington.

How the US views China’s diplomacy

The Trump administration reportedly exhibits minimal enthusiasm for the prospect of China’s mediation, as indicated by U.S. officials.

The U.S. has grown wary of third-party mediation attempts and has little desire to enhance China’s international standing or provide it with an opportunity to claim success in the Middle East, explained three U.S. officials, who spoke anonymously due to not being authorized to publicly discuss potential diplomatic options.

One of these officials described the administration’s stance on the Chinese-Pakistani effort as “agnostic,” neither endorsing nor rejecting it, but all three emphasized that this position could shift if President Donald Trump intervenes before his scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

For Beijing, there might be an incentive to see the conflict de-escalate before Trump’s visit to China in mid-May. Citing demands related to the war, Trump had initially postponed the trip, which was originally set for the end of March.

“There is no guarantee that Trump may not delay the trip to China again if the war rages on,” Sun noted.

The war experienced a significant escalation on Friday when Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft, marking a first since the conflict commenced five weeks prior. Trump informed NBC News that this incident would not affect negotiations with Iran, just days after asserting in a national address that the U.S. had “beaten and completely decimated Iran.”

Beijing is calculating the pain from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

Currently, China is more insulated from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz compared to other nations, having diversified its energy sources and reduced its reliance on fossil fuels.

China depends on Iran for only about 13% of its oil imports, and Beijing is collaborating with Tehran to facilitate the passage of Chinese-flagged vessels through the crucial waterway, where Iran’s control has caused energy prices to surge. China also maintains a substantial strategic petroleum reserve.

While China has positioned itself to absorb short-term shocks, analysts suggest that Beijing is concerned about a prolonged war and has an interest in seeking its conclusion.

“An escalation of the conflict will start to harm Chinese interests,” Russel stated. “Because China’s growth model is so export-heavy, prolonged energy shocks and shipping disruption will mean costlier inputs and weaker global demand that damage its vulnerable economy.”

Beyond not wanting a lengthy war, China “welcomes the opportunity to suggest that it is helping mitigate a crisis of America’s making, especially as the Trump administration’s lack of a considered strategy for containing the fallout becomes more apparent,” commented Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

China has undertaken a flurry of diplomacy

Following the outbreak of the war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi engaged in discussions with his counterparts from Russia, Oman, Iran, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. He conveyed to Iran China’s appreciation for their friendship, urged Israel to cease military actions, and expressed China’s willingness to contribute to peace efforts.

This past week, Wang hosted his Pakistani counterpart in Beijing to finalize their five-point proposal, which calls for an end to hostilities and the reopening of the strait.

He has conducted over 20 phone calls with regional foreign ministers, and a special envoy has visited several countries in the region, aiming to foster peace and de-escalate tensions, Liu confirmed.

Wang sought support for China’s plan from the European Union’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, informing her that it represented “broad, international consensus,” according to the Chinese foreign ministry. Wang told Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan that halting the fighting was the most pressing issue.

Wang also spoke this week with Bahrain’s foreign minister, Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, to explain China’s opposition to Bahrain’s U.N. proposal to authorize military force to open the Strait of Hormuz. Wang asserted that actions by the U.N. Security Council should help alleviate tensions “rather than endorse illegal acts of war, still less add fuel to the fire.”

China and Russia contended that the U.S. or other nations could exploit a U.N.-backed mechanism to escalate the deadly conflict, according to a U.N. diplomat who spoke anonymously to discuss diplomatic conversations.

Both countries appear to have less immediate urgency for the strait to be fully open. While China has managed to pay for some of its ships to pass through, Russia is benefiting from the elevated price of oil, its primary export.

In an effort to avoid a veto, Bahrain significantly diluted its proposal to authorize defensive — but not offensive — action to ensure vessels could safely transit the strait. A vote was postponed until next week.

To resolve the issue of the strait, China maintains that a ceasefire is necessary. However, its plan with Pakistan has been met with largely silence from the U.S.

One of the U.S. officials stated that the plan is challenging to evaluate because it functions less as a roadmap to peace and more as a vague appeal for adherence to international law, the importance of diplomacy, and the U.N.’s role.

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Amiri reported from the United Nations.