TrendForce Predicts 2.2% Rise in Global Notebook Shipments for 2025, Attributing Growth to Expanding Southeast Asian Production

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Sept. 17, 2025 — The global notebook market is expected to recover in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical issues and tariff concerns. According to TrendForce, notebook imports from Southeast Asia continue to benefit from U.S. tariff exemptions. This, coupled with earlier supply chain shifts to the region in response to U.S. tariffs during the Trump administration, has resulted in increased production capacity. Consequently, notebook shipments are projected to increase by 2.2% year-over-year in 2025, exceeding 180 million units.

Second quarter 2025 is expected to be particularly strong. Brands are accelerating shipments due to the continued zero-tariff benefit for notebooks manufactured in Southeast Asia and exported to the U.S. Furthermore, subsidy programs in China are driving a replacement cycle, while Japan’s GIGA School 2.0 education initiative continues to stimulate demand, leading to an anticipated 9.5% quarter-over-quarter shipment increase.

In the third quarter of 2025, notebooks will remain exempt from potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs. With ongoing support from brands, OS vendors, and CPU suppliers through subsidies, shipments are projected to maintain positive momentum with a 7.5% quarter-over-quarter increase.

Southeast Asia production capacity in the spotlight

As global supply chains are restructured, Southeast Asia is becoming the primary notebook production hub outside of China. Dell and Apple’s significant investments in Vietnam have fostered a supply chain cluster, attracting other brands to expand their presence there.

Major ODMs like Compal, Wistron, LCFC, and Huaqin have prioritized Vietnam for capacity expansion due to its proximity to China, convenient logistics, stable policy environment, and young workforce. TrendForce predicts that Vietnam’s share of global notebook production will rise sharply to 13.5% in 2025.

In Thailand, HP has spearheaded the establishment of new production lines in collaboration with Quanta and Inventec. With an existing foundation in electronics manufacturing, favorable government policies, and a strategic geographic location connecting South Asia and ASEAN markets, Thailand is emerging as another key location. The country’s share of global notebook capacity is expected to reach 6.7% in 2025 as more component suppliers move in and the supply chain matures.

Beyond Vietnam and Thailand, education and government procurement programs in various regions require locally manufactured notebooks, encouraging brands to localize production in large domestic markets. Partnerships with local manufacturers in India, Indonesia, and Brazil are building additional capacity. While the scale remains limited, these efforts are becoming an important factor for market penetration. TrendForce estimates that such localized capacity will account for 3.7% of global notebook production in 2025.

TrendForce concludes that global notebook shipments in 2025 will be supported by consistent replacement cycles and education initiatives on the demand side. On the supply side, production diversification, driven by capacity relocation and geopolitical considerations, will accelerate. Southeast Asia is poised to become the next vital manufacturing center, playing a crucial role in mitigating trade-related risks.

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About TrendForce
TrendForce is a global provider of the latest development, insight, and analysis of the technology industry. Having served businesses for over a decade, the company has built up a strong membership base of 500,000 subscribers. TrendForce has established a reputation as an organization that offers insightful and accurate analysis of the technology industry through five major research divisions: Semiconductor Research, Display Research, Optoelectronics Research, Green Energy Research, ICT Applications Research. Founded in Taipei, Taiwan in 2000, TrendForce has extended its presence in China since 2004 with offices in Shenzhen and Beijing.

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