Steel Dynamics Stock Slides as Q1 Outlook Misses Wall Street Estimates

TLDR

• Steel Dynamics issued Q1 EPS guidance of $2.73 to $2.77, which fell well short of the analyst consensus estimate of $3.24
• The company’s stock dropped 1.3% during Tuesday’s premarket trading session
• Even with this shortfall, the guidance is higher than the $1.44 EPS from the year-ago quarter and the $1.82 EPS from the prior quarter
• The firm’s customer order backlog is over 35% higher than it was a year ago, extending into Q3 2026
• Peer companies Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs also saw premarket declines following this news

---

(SeaPRwire) –   Steel Dynamics (STLD) released first-quarter 2026 earnings guidance that came in well below Wall Street’s expectations. The company projected EPS between $2.73 and $2.77, compared to the analyst consensus estimate of $3.24, which pushed its stock down 1.3% in Tuesday’s premarket trading.

Steel Dynamics, Inc., STLD

That being said, the figures are not poor on their own. The Q1 guidance is up from $1.82 EPS last quarter and $1.44 in Q1 2025, meaning the company is growing year-over-year. The issue is that analysts had set a more ambitious target, which STLD failed to meet.

The company cited stronger steel operations as the driver of sequential improvement. Higher shipments and expanded metal margins — where average selling values rose faster than scrap costs — are expected to boost profitability compared to Q4 2025.

The metals recycling segment should also see improved earnings, thanks to higher ferrous and nonferrous selling values. However, shipments in this segment are projected to decline due to winter weather disruptions in January and February.

Steel fabrication results are expected to hold roughly steady with Q4 2025, with higher shipment volumes offsetting some margin pressure from rising raw material costs.

One notable figure: STLD’s customer order backlog is over 35% higher than a year ago and stretches into Q3 2026. This suggests that demand isn’t fading anytime soon.

The company also flagged strong demand across non-residential construction, energy, and automotive sectors.

Columbus Aluminum Mill Progress

Steel Dynamics continued commissioning its Columbus, Mississippi aluminum flat rolled products mill during the quarter. The facility has already produced finished goods for the industrial and beverage can sectors, and has earned product qualifications from several can sheet buyers.

The firm has also produced aluminum hot band for automotive applications, a key milestone as it expands into new product territory.

Share buybacks were temporarily slowed in Q1. The company allocated capital toward its annual profit-sharing payment of roughly $126 million and increased working capital tied to its aluminum operations. It repurchased about $66 million of stock during the quarter and plans to return to normal buyback levels in Q2.

STLD has raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years. In recent weeks, it announced a 6% increase to its quarterly dividend, bringing it to $0.53 per share, payable in early April.

The stock has gained roughly 37% over the past 12 months, lifted by former President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. But over the past month, uncertainty around whether those tariffs could be reduced has weighed on the sector.

Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs Also Lower

The guidance miss rippled through the broader steel sector. Nucor (NUE) fell 0.5% in premarket trading, and Cleveland-Cliffs dropped 0.2%.

Steel Dynamics will report full Q1 2026 results after the market close on Monday, April 20.

On the M&A front, Steel Dynamics and SGH Ltd. raised their joint takeover bid for BlueScope Steel to $11 billion — a 14% increase — but BlueScope rejected the offer. The companies have said they won’t raise the bid again unless a competing offer emerges.