Polymarket Participants Gained $1 Million From Bets on US-Iran Strike Placed Hours Before Assault, Sparking Insider Trading Concerns

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Key Takeaways

  • A total of $1 million was collectively earned by six recently established Polymarket wallets through wagers on a U.S. strike against Iran occurring prior to February 28, 2026.
  • The majority of these wallets were funded and became active within 24 hours of the strikes, with shares acquired mere hours before reports of explosions in Tehran emerged.
  • One wallet, the largest among them, transformed an approximate $61,000 wager into a profit exceeding $493,000.
  • Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified these accounts as “potential insiders,” although definitive proof of insider trading remains elusive.
  • U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres is currently drafting legislation aimed at prohibiting federal officials from engaging in prediction market trading related to government policy.

On the prediction market platform Polymarket, six recently established cryptocurrency wallets collectively gained almost $1 million by wagering on a U.S. strike against Iran occurring prior to February 28, 2026 — with the majority of these transactions executed just hours before initial reports of explosions in Tehran.

Bubblemaps, an onchain analytics firm, brought attention to these six wallets after observing a suspicious timing pattern. The majority of these accounts were established and received funds within 24 hours of the strikes, and each acquired “yes” shares on the Polymarket contract titled “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”

President Donald Trump verified the existence of “massive and ongoing” military actions targeting Iran, which the Department of War designated as “Operation Epic Fury.” These strikes were carried out in collaboration with Israel.

The most significant wallet among them acquired 560,680 “yes” shares, each priced at approximately 10.8 cents, totaling an expenditure of roughly $61,000. Upon the contract’s resolution, this resulted in a profit exceeding $493,000.

Another wallet, identified as “Planktonbets,” accumulated $173,907 from seven different predictions. This account had also made minor losing wagers on previous strike dates, indicating multiple efforts to pinpoint the precise day.

The wallet named “Dicedicedice” placed a solitary wager and secured $119,964, representing a 400% return. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” recorded the highest percentage return among the identified wallets at 900%, converting $9,884 into almost $89,000.

Additionally, two other wallets, “nothingeverhappens911” and an unnamed account, gained $66,436 and $45,556 respectively. All six of these wallets have subsequently closed out their positions entirely.

A Single Trader Incurred Millions in Losses Concurrently

Not all participants saw gains. A trader identified as “anoin123” had amassed over $2 million by wagering against strikes in the preceding months. After the attacks, that particular account experienced a $6.5 million loss within a single day, shifting from a $2 million profit to a $4.5 million deficit, as reported by onchain data firm Lookonchain.

Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, informed The Block: “Achieving 100% certainty in such instances is nearly unfeasible, but considering the magnitude of the wagers, the recently funded wallets, and the precise timing, the evidence was compelling enough to disclose.”

The collection of contracts related to “US strikes Iran” generated more than $529 million in total trading volume on Polymarket since December 2025. Specifically, the contract for February 28 alone garnered approximately $90 million.

Recurring Instances of Alleged Insider Trading

This incident is not the initial occasion where Polymarket has encountered allegations of insider trading. In January, a newly established wallet wagered $32,000 on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, at 7 cents per share, accumulating over $400,000 before the information became publicly known.

Earlier in the current month, Israeli prosecutors charged an IDF reservist and a civilian with allegedly leveraging classified military intelligence to place wagers on Polymarket’s markets concerning Israel’s strike on Iran during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. The two individuals are reported to have collectively profited over $150,000.

Merely days prior to the Iran strike, individuals suspected of insider trading generated more than $1 million on a Polymarket contract linked to a blockchain investigation involving the crypto platform Axiom.

U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres has put forth the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, a proposed law that would prohibit federal officials from engaging in prediction market trading on contracts related to government policy while utilizing nonpublic information. Competing platform Kalshi has openly supported this bill, with its CEO asserting that regulated prediction markets are not authorized to operate markets concerning warfare.