Oil Prices Slip as Trump Tariffs and Iran Nuclear Talks Rattle Energy Markets

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TLDR

  • Oil prices declined by over 1% on Monday due to US-Iran nuclear talks alleviating concerns of conflict
  • Following the US Supreme Court’s invalidation of his prior tariff scheme, President Trump increased global tariffs from 10% to 15%
  • A third round of US-Iran nuclear talks is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva
  • Goldman Sachs upped its Q4 2026 Brent forecast by $6 to $60 per barrel, attributing it to lower OECD inventories
  • Goldman anticipates a global oil surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with downward risks if sanctions on Iran or Russia are relaxed

Oil prices dropped on Monday as two significant developments simultaneously impacted the market: new US tariffs and progress in Iran nuclear talks.

Brent crude decreased by 73 cents to $71.03 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate slipped 75 cents to $65.73.

Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F)

These actions followed President Trump’s announcement that he would boost tariffs on all US imports from 10% to 15%. The US Supreme Court had invalidated his earlier tariff program, and this was his reaction under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The higher tariffs sparked concerns about slower global growth and weaker fuel demand. Analysts stated that the news instigated risk aversion across markets, affecting oil along with US equity futures and .

Iran Nuclear Talks Add Pressure

Iran and the US are scheduled to meet on Thursday in Geneva for a third round of nuclear talks. Oman’s Foreign Minister confirmed the meeting on Sunday.

The talks helped alleviate fears of in the region. Brent and WTI had climbed by more than 5% the previous week due to those fears.

A senior Iranian official informed Reuters that Tehran is willing to make concessions regarding its nuclear program. In exchange, Iran desires the lifting of sanctions and the recognition of its right to enrich uranium.

This lessening of tension caused prices to fall back. Analysts noted that with a possible deal in sight, the risk premium embedded in oil prices began to dissipate.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecasts

Goldman Sachs increased its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts on Sunday. It now projects Brent at $60 and WTI at $56 for that period, an increase of $6 from previous estimates.

The bank cited lower OECD inventories as the primary reason for the upward revision. For the entire year 2026, Goldman now anticipates Brent to average $64 (up from $56) and WTI to average $60 (up from $52).

Goldman maintained its 2026 surplus forecast at 2.3 million barrels per day. This assumes no significant supply disruptions and no Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

The bank reduced supply outlooks for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq because of unmet production targets. It upgraded supply expectations for the Americas and core OPEC countries.

Goldman anticipates that OPEC+ will begin gradually increasing output in Q2 2026, as OECD inventories have not accumulated as anticipated.

The bank highlighted downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI if sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates supply growth.

Goldman predicts Brent and WTI will average $65 and $61 in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by December 2027.