Iran War Fuels Oil Surge, Stocks and Crypto Volatile Ahead of Fed Decision

TLDR

• Oil surpassed $100 a barrel as Iran carried on attacking energy infrastructure, such as igniting a UAE gas field
• Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were mixed on Tuesday, fluctuating between gains and losses
• Brent crude rose near $104; US diesel exceeded $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022
• Bitcoin and crypto markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s Fed meeting, with a 99% chance rates will stay steady
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announced $1 trillion in projected chip sales through the end of 2027 at the GTC event

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(SeaPRwire) –   Iran’s conflict with Israel kept oil prices high on Tuesday, rippling through stock and crypto markets ahead of a critical Federal Reserve decision.

Dow Jones futures lingered just below the neutral line in early trading. S&P 500 futures declined around 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped approximately 0.2%. These shifts followed Monday’s cautious stock recovery, which stalled quickly.

Oil prices were the primary driver. Brent crude climbed to just under $104 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $96. Both have surged significantly as the Middle East conflict persists with no resolution in sight.

Iran targeted energy infrastructure, setting a major UAE gas field on fire. Israel stated it had killed Iran’s security chief, escalating regional tensions further.

US diesel passed $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022. Supply disruptions from the Gulf are cited as the cause of the spike.

BREAKING: Germany, Japan, and Australia say they will not be joining US efforts to militarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the UK and France say they are willing to discuss options, per WSJ.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 16, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked by Iran. President Trump requested US allies join a multinational initiative to escort tankers through the waterway, though several nations have declined.

Fed Meeting and Rate Expectations

The Federal Reserve started its two-day meeting on Tuesday. A policy decision and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated Wednesday.

Markets are pricing in a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged, per CME FedWatch. The inflation spike driven by oil has delayed any expectations of imminent rate cuts.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are keeping a close eye on the Fed. Rate decisions have historically influenced crypto prices, as traders assess how tighter or looser monetary policy affects risk assets.

Just weeks ago, inflation data was trending favorably. The surge in energy prices has now complicated that outlook for the Fed and other central banks worldwide.

Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Chip Forecast

On the corporate front, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang grabbed headlines at the company’s GTC event. He revealed a series of new deals and stated Nvidia projects $1 trillion in chip sales by the end of 2027.

Investors were also monitoring earnings reports from Tencent, DocuSign, and Oklo, all scheduled for Tuesday.

Stock futures briefly went positive in morning trading as oil retreated slightly from its peaks. WTI hit $98.42 before stabilizing around $95.28.

Analyst Paul Hickey from Bespoke Investment Group observed that bulls were working hard to keep futures in positive territory despite overnight pressure from oil prices.

At the time of writing, WTI crude was trading at $94.60, a bit below its session highs, while equity futures stayed volatile.