Iran Ceasefire Pauses Gold’s Slide—But the Hidden Risks Haven’t Disappeared

(SeaPRwire) –

By: Christian Brooks
The brief gold rally Monday feels like a temporary band-aid. Markets calmed after Iran called off military strikes on Israel. But underlying regional tensions have not dissipated. Traders face a tug of war between safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed rate bets.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,343.70 an ounce Monday mid-morning in New York. It had earlier dropped 1.4% to an 11-week low. Iran confirmed the end of operations via state media. It warned harsher retaliation if Israel strikes again. The conflict flared after an Israeli strike on Beirut. Gold fell nearly 5% last week on the escalation. Oil prices spiked then pulled back after the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted four months, stoking inflation fears. Yemen’s Houthi rebels blockaded Israeli ships in the Red Sea Monday. The U.S. May jobs report beat forecasts, with 172,000 new jobs. Unemployment held at 4.3%. Traders fully price in a Fed December rate hike. The U.S. dollar index pulled back slightly Monday after hitting a two-month high Friday. China’s central bank added 10 tons of gold reserves in May, its highest monthly total since 2024. That marks 19 straight months of gold buying. StoneX analysts see a downward bias for gold. They also watch for bargain hunting opportunities. Silver rose 0.5% to $68.19 an ounce Monday.

Investors are stuck navigating conflicting signals right now. China’s steady gold buying sets a long-term price floor. Unresolved Middle East tensions will keep volatility high. This week’s U.S. inflation data will swing Fed rate bets even more. Traders should hold off on large gold purchases until those numbers land.

Author bio: Christian Brooks, a prominent financial and business lead commentator with 15 years covering global commodities markets.