Elucidating Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle: Scaramucci’s Prediction of Q4 Recovery

TLDR

• SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci maintains that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains intact despite the rise of institutional investment.
• A surge in profit-taking by long-term investors near the $100,000 mark triggered significant selling pressure, pulling the price down from a peak of $126,000 to $60,000.
• While ETFs and institutional capital have dampened market volatility, they have not disrupted the fundamental cyclical nature of Bitcoin.
• Scaramucci anticipates continued market turbulence for the majority of 2026, with a fresh bull market projected to commence in the fourth quarter.
• Following a 1.3% decline in the S&P 500, which slipped below its 200-day moving average, some market observers warn that persistent correlation with equities could lead to a further 50% drop for Bitcoin.

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(SeaPRwire) –   Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, asserts that Bitcoin is currently undergoing a typical four-year cycle correction, with a price recovery anticipated by the fourth quarter of 2026.

JUST IN: SCARAMUCCI SAYS BTC BEAR MARKET DRIVEN BY FOUR-YEAR CYCLE

The current Bitcoin $BTC downturn follows its traditional cycle, Anthony Scaramucci (@Scaramucci), managing partner of the SkyBridge investment firm, said in a recent podcast with Scott Melker of the “Wolf of… pic.twitter.com/Sfo0QGuSfV

— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 23, 2026

During an appearance on Scott Melker’s “The Wolf of All Streets” podcast, Scaramucci identified profit-taking near the $100,000 threshold as the primary catalyst for the recent decline.

Early investors and long-term holders viewed $100,000 as a psychological milestone for exiting positions. This wave of selling created downward momentum, even as new institutional capital entered the market.

After reaching an all-time high near $126,000, Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction to $60,000, defying widespread market forecasts that predicted a climb to $150,000 in 2025.

Scaramucci noted that those expectations were bolstered by Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance and a more favorable US regulatory climate. However, he emphasized that markets rarely follow the consensus view.

He cited early 2023 as a precedent, noting that Bitcoin began its recovery in January of that year, a time when market sentiment was at its nadir following the collapse of the FTX exchange in late 2022.

“It was at a period of great disinterest and great apathy that the bull market started again,” Scaramucci said.

How Institutional Investment Changed — But Did Not Break — The Cycle

Scaramucci explained that while Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows have moderated the intensity of the cycle, they have not abolished it. Although price fluctuations are less extreme, the underlying pattern persists.

He characterized the cycle as partially self-fulfilling, noting that investors who believe in the four-year pattern act accordingly, thereby reinforcing the trend.

US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen approximately $2 billion in inflows over the last four weeks, marking the longest period of net inflows so far in 2026.

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Are Moving Together

Bitcoin dipped below $69,000 on Saturday as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to impact risk-on assets. The conflict involving Iran, now in its third week, has placed significant strain on global markets.

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months—a key indicator often used to assess long-term equity trends.

Some analysts suggest that if Bitcoin remains closely correlated with the S&P 500, it could face a further 50% decline throughout 2026.

Scaramucci dismissed the current downturn as a “garden variety” correction consistent with historical cycles. He expects market choppiness to persist for most of the year before a new bull cycle takes hold in Q4 2026.

Cumulative inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached approximately $2 billion over the past four weeks.