Dutch Bros Stock Plummets Yet Business Remains Strong

TLDR

• Dutch Bros’ stock has declined by almost 25% in the first quarter of 2026, fueled by macroeconomic concerns and wary consumer attitudes.
• Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue rose 29% year-over-year to $443.6 million — the quickest growth pace in close to 12 months.
• Earnings per share (EPS) of $0.17 jumped 143% from the prior year; the firm exceeded consensus forecasts by 70% in the last quarter.
• Dutch Bros’ average unit volume reached an all-time high of $2.1 million in 2025, surpassing Starbucks ($1.8M) and Dunkin’ ($1.4M).
• The company intends to launch 181 new outlets in 2026 and is projecting $2 billion in revenue — a 25% increase.

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(SeaPRwire) –   Prior to this recent analysis, Dutch Bros (BROS) closed at approximately $28–$29, mirroring the nearly 25% drop over the preceding three months.

Dutch Bros Inc., BROS

Dutch Bros has been among the more perplexing narratives in the restaurant industry recently. While its stock has plummeted, the business itself is thriving. This disconnect merits attention.

In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of $443.6 million, a 29% year-over-year increase. This isn’t just strong performance — it’s a pickup from the 25% growth recorded in Q3. EPS stood at $0.17, a 143% surge compared to the same quarter the previous year.

Systemwide same-store sales increased by 7.7%, with transaction volume rising by 5.4%. Company-owned locations fared even better, with same-store sales up 9.7% and transactions growing by 7.6%. Dutch Bros has now achieved 19 straight years of positive same-store sales growth.

The firm’s average unit volume hit a record $2.1 million in 2025, outperforming Starbucks ($1.8 million) and Dunkin’ ($1.4 million).

Earnings Beat Streak Continues

Dutch Bros has exceeded earnings expectations in each of the past two quarters. In Q4, it surpassed the Zacks consensus estimate of $0.10 by 70%. The prior quarter, it beat a $0.17 forecast by reporting $0.19.

The average earnings surprise across these two quarters is 40.88%.

Looking forward to the next earnings report, the Zacks Earnings ESP is +2.20% — a favorable indicator. When paired with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), research indicates this combination leads to a positive earnings surprise about 70% of the time.

Analysts have been adjusting their estimates upward, a move that usually signals greater confidence in short-term performance.

Expansion and New Formats

Dutch Bros currently runs 1,136 locations and aims to add 181 more in 2026. Its long-term goal is to reach 2,029 locations by 2029.

Management is projecting $2 billion in revenue for this year, which would equate to approximately 25% growth — consistent with Wall Street’s forecasts.

The company is also experimenting with new formats. A walk-up spot in downtown Los Angeles has performed strongly, with order-ahead transactions at three times the systemwide average. A limited breakfast menu is also being tested.

The stock is trading at 74 times earnings, which might seem expensive. However, its price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is 0.87. A PEG ratio below 1 is typically viewed as an indication that a stock could be undervalued relative to its growth rate.

Dutch Bros’ +2.20% Earnings ESP and upward analyst estimate adjustments suggest another possible earnings beat when the company releases its next report.