Amgen Stock Gains Analyst Optimism as GLP-1 Drug MariTide Advances

TLDR

• Amgen’s GLP-1 drug MariTide recorded nearly 20% weight loss during clinical trials, making it competitive with Eli Lilly’s Zepbound
• MariTide may be developed into a once-quarterly injection, an upgrade from its existing once-monthly dosing profile
• Truist has upped its price target for AMGN to $325 from the prior $319, while maintaining a Hold rating on the stock
• Truist projects Q1 2026 revenue will reach $9.18 billion, far higher than the consensus estimate of $8.58 billion
• Analysts see potential for AMGN to retake its all-time high of $388, which would represent an 11% gain from current trading levels

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(SeaPRwire) –   Amgen’s share price has risen 25% since April 2025, slightly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% return over the same period. The stock trades at a forward P/E of roughly 15 times earnings, close to the upper end of its five-year range, and holds a market capitalization of $186.4 billion.

Amgen Inc. (ticker: AMGN)

Amgen’s GLP-1 candidate MariTide is garnering growing attention from both analysts and investors. Trial participants posted nearly 20% weight loss, putting it within close reach of Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which delivers weight loss in the low 20% range. MariTide also outperforms Lilly’s oral pill Foundayo, which recorded roughly 12% weight loss in trials.

During the January JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen stated MariTide could evolve into a once-quarterly injection. That would be an improvement from its current once-monthly profile and a significant competitive edge over Zepbound’s weekly dosing schedule.

Amgen does not need to dominate the GLP-1 market to drive meaningful financial impact. JPMorgan analysts forecast the total GLP-1 market could hit $200 billion by 2030. If Amgen captures just $5 billion in MariTide revenue, that alone would lift total sales by around 13%, based on analyst forecasts of $37.8 billion in full-year 2026 revenue for the company.

Phase 3 trial data for MariTide is scheduled for release in early 2027. As that date draws near, analysts typically raise their revenue estimates for a drug, shifting from conservative “risk-adjusted” figures to higher, more optimistic projections.

Truist Raises Price Target, Expects Q1 Consensus Beat

Truist Securities lifted its price target on AMGN to $325 from $319 this week, while retaining a Hold rating. The firm anticipates Q1 2026 revenue of $9.18 billion versus the Wall Street consensus of $8.58 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $5.24 compared to the consensus figure of $4.77.

Truist’s Q1 estimates are above consensus for key Amgen drugs including Repatha ($874M), Prolia ($878M), Evenity ($598M), and Tezspire ($487M). The firm also raised its long-term estimates for Krystexxa after the drug received strengthened patent protection that extends through 2040.

Truist increased the estimated probability of success for MariTide, citing a stronger commercially viable profile for obesity treatment.

Robust Core Business Supports Growth Outlook

Beyond its GLP-1 pipeline, Amgen’s core business remains stable. Q4 sales beat market expectations, and earnings came in nearly 12% above forecasts. The company has topped earnings estimates in 17 of the last 20 quarters. Total revenue is expected to grow just under 3% in 2026, with several new drugs in the early stages of commercial rollout.

Amgen recently refinanced $4 billion in debt at lower interest rates. This move caps future cost increases, meaning any revenue boost from MariTide could translate more directly to bottom-line earnings growth.

Cantor Fitzgerald holds a Neutral rating on AMGN with a $350 price target. William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform rating following positive Phase 3 results for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease drug, which posted a 77% proptosis response rate versus 19.6% for the placebo group.

The all-time high for AMGN stands at $388, reached earlier this year. That mark is roughly 11% above the stock’s current trading levels.